In the War of Conan vs. Jay, Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About Dave?

Here’s my theory on why Conan’s ratings dropped. Although I think it’s fairly obvious, I haven’t heard anyone out there saying it. Here goes:

  • Conan used to be on at 12:30. Jay was on at 11:30. Dave was also on at 11:30.
  • “Conan people” tend to also be “Dave people,” which meant that…
  • Those people could watch Dave, then watch Conan.
  • When Jay went to 10, and Conan went to 11:30, that meant Conan was running against Dave.
  • Viewers then had to make a choice between Conan and Dave. Maybe out of habit, maybe out of loyalty, maybe because of that sex scandal, they watched Dave. Let’s assume they DVR’d Conan to watch at 12:30 (DVR viewings don’t yet count in the ratings). Who knows?
  • Conan’s ratings plummet.

Whaddya think? Do you buy it?